ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for October 20 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
What you need to know for Thursday’s games
Magic Number?
Keep an eye on tonight’s spread in Los Angeles… the Lakers were just 1-5 ATS as home underdogs when the spread was fewer than five points, but they were 4-2 as a home ‘dog when the spread at least five points.
Dog Days
The Bucks covered five games as an underdog last season and all five of those games went under the total. That’s a nice little trend, but the fact of the matter is that when the Wise Guys decided they didn’t like a Milwaukee spot, they were normally right: 5-11 ATS as ‘dogs last season (eight of those ATS losses saw their opponent cover by more than six points).
Giannis The Great
In each of his past five season openers, Giannis Antetokounmpo has produced a 50-plus Points+Rebounds+Assists (PRA), pulling down at least 13 boards in each of those games. His opening PRA line was 48.5 and his rebound number came in at 11.5. Are those high totals? Of course. Are they high enough? Maybe not.
Too Deep?
Fantasy investors haven’t looked to the Clippers’ roster much in drafts this fall. Other than superstar wings Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, only John Wall and Ivica Zubac are rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues at the moment. Can sharpshooting wing Norman Powell (69% available) surface as a worthy fantasy option from this deep rotation? The Lakers afforded the Warriors a series of wide-open looks (at least six feet of distance from the closest defender) on Tuesday, suggesting Powell could thrive as a catch-and-shoot threat in this battle of city rivals.
Fantasy Free Agents
Wednesday’s robust 12-game slate saw some surprising names emerge as box score stars. Minnesota’s versatile defensive forward Jaden McDaniels (89% available in ESPN leagues), for instance, amassed five stocks (blocks plus steals) to go with 19 points and six pulls in 36 minutes of run. With the Bulls missing Lonzo Ball for several weeks, at the minimum, second-year guard Ayo Dosunmu (85%) got the start at point guard and was impressive on both sides of the ball for Chicago. Looking to the rookie class, Indiana’s Bennedict Mathurin lofted 18 shots in 28 minutes and could really take off if the team ends up moving Buddy Hield this season.
— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Games of the night
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
7:30 p.m ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Line: 76ers (-4)
Money line: 76ers (-175), Bucks (+150)
Total: 225 points
BPI Projected Total: 226.5 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (74.7%)
Ruled out: Khris Middleton (wrist), Pat Connaughton (calf), Joe Ingles (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Brook Lopez (rostered in 18.8% of ESPN leagues) enters the season healthy, and remains the starting center for the Bucks. While Bobby Portis is now a huge part of the frontcourt trifecta, along with MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lopez will still have a large part to play. In this exact role last season, after having missed the majority of the campaign injured, Lopez averaged 12.4 PPG (46.6 FG%, 35.8 3P%, 87.0 FT%), 4.1 RPG, 1.5 3PG and 1.2 BPG in 22.9 MPG in the last 13 games of the regular season. He averaged similar numbers in 12 playoff games, and in his one game against the 76ers last season he dropped 17 points, 4 3-pointers, and 3 rebounds in 29 minutes. — Snellings
Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 30.5 points. Giannis has a special place in his heart for his matchups against the 76ers. In three meetings against them last season, he averaged 34.3 PPG (13.7 RPG and 6.3 APG). That type of video game-level production is the norm for Giannis against the 76ers for like the last half-decade. In 12 meetings over the last five seasons, Giannis has averaged 33.3 PPG versus the 76ers. — Snellings
Best bet: James Harden over 22.5 points. Harden looks like Harden again. After looking… let’s be nice and say diminished… last season, particularly after his trade to the 76ers, there was a general sentiment that age and Father Time may have won the war against The Beard. But, I said then, that I thought he was still dealing with the lingering aftermath of his soft tissue injuries as opposed to being washed up. Harden made a similar comment in the offseason, about how he felt himself to be an MVP candidate when in good shape. In the opener, he appeared to be in excellent individual form, and I don’t think his opening night totals of 35 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists are a fluke. I think he’ll routinely go over 22.5 points, particularly in big games against championship-level opponents like the Celtics or Bucks. — Snellings
Best bet: Joel Embiid over 11.5 rebounds. Embiid finished with 15 rebounds against the Celtics on Tuesday, and that comes after he averaged 11.7 RPG last season. There is a strong chance that his success on the boards will continue. In two games against the Bucks last season, he averaged 14.0 rebounds per game. With Milwaukee shorthanded playing without Khris MIddleton, Embiid should be the clear rebound leader in this game. — Moody
Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers
10 p.m ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Line: Clippers (-5.5)
Money line: Clippers (-230), Lakers (+195)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.9 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (51.9%)
Probable: LeBron James (foot), Anthony Davis (back), Reggie Jackson (groin)
Ruled out: Thomas Bryant (thumb), Dennis Schroder (thumb)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Marcus Morris (rostered in 5.7% of leagues) will start at power forward for the Clippers, joining Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on a Clippers team that’s as healthy as it has been in a long time. There is a good chance that Leonard’s minutes early in the season are limited as he returns from a torn ACL that cost him all of last season. Morris averaged 15.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 54 starts in 2021-22. — Moody
Best bet: Clippers -5.5. The Clippers are overwhelming favorites against the Lakers and for good reason. Leonard and George are finally together again and have a new addition in John Wall. Despite not playing a full season in three years, the 32-year-old Leonard is in great shape and highly motivated. Meanwhile, the Lakers are coming off a troubling season-opening loss to the Warriors. Outside of LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, the Lakers lack offensive options, particularly with Dennis Schroder sidelined. James, Davis and Westbrook scored 77 of the team’s 109 points against Golden State, while the rest of the Lakers shot just 32%. In the last four games between the Lakers and Clippers, three of the games were closer than the spread. Leonard was not on the court, however. When giving up fewer than 112.1 points, the Clippers finished 30-21-1 against the spread last season. There is a strong chance the Clippers will cover the spread. — Moody
Best bet: Ivica Zubac over 8.5 points. Zubac should set a career high in minutes this season with Isaiah Hartenstein now with the Knicks. He averaged 10.3 PPG and 8.5 RPG last season despite playing only 24.4 MPG. Having a limited depth could hurt the Lakers in this game, which ultimately benefits Zubac. — Moody
Best bet: Lakers +5.5. I’ll actually take the opposite side of this one, and back the Lakers with the points. I feel that the Lakers have taken more than their fair share of criticism after the first game of the season. During the Warriors game, I tweeted that the Lakers’ lack of shooting made them like a ball-control football team that had to play perfect against a quick-strike squad like the Warriors. Hidden in the noise of the typical Warriors’ third quarter blitz, is that the Lakers actually played at that level in each of the other three quarters (Dubs outscored them by 1-point outside the third). More specifically, Davis looked outstanding as the starting center (kudos to new coach Darvin Ham for getting him to buy into the move we all knew he needed), LeBron is still the king when he’s healthy… which he now is, and even Westbrook was effective when he stopped chucking treys and went to the rim like a running back. The Clippers’ style isn’t the quick-strike deadliness of the Warriors; Davis at the five confounds both Zubac at center (too slow) and the small-ball looks (too small) that the Clips like to run; and at home in the Staples Center we are more likely to see the Lakers’ role players actually be able to hit the broad side of the barn tonight. Give me the Lakers and the points. — Snellings
Analytics Edge
BPI’s highest projected totals
1. Philadelphia 76ers (116.8)
2. Los Angeles Clippers (111.7)
BPI’s lowest projected totals
1. Milwaukee Bucks (109.4)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (109.8)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Philadelphia 76ers (74.8%)
2. Los Angeles Clippers (56.9)
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