LADIES and Gentlemen, we were this close to greatness… 5/6 on this column last week, let’s look at this quarter of incredible matchups as we try and squeeze eight down to four.
*All picks are Money Line only.
2021 Playoff Money Line Record: W-L 5-1 (83%)
2021 regular season handicap record: W-L-D: 44-44-2 (49%)
Bengals @ Titans (-3.5) – Saturday 21:30
Well after beating Vegas, it’s like the Bengals are playing with house money.
After breaking a 31-year playoff winning drought, who’s to say that Cincy can’t knock off the #1 seed Titans? Not this column that’s for sure.
They might have to play perfect Football to do it but we saw last week that there’s no nerves between Joe Burrow and his prime rookie target Ja’Marr Chase.
Coincidentally, the year that Chase was born was the same year that Tennessee last reached the Super Bowl.
They won’t have a better chance for a while and that statement rings true tenfold if, as expected, Derrick Henry returns from injury to play some part.
He’s the heart and soul of the Titans offense and as much as they were getting by just enough without him, they are a completely different monster when he gets in gear and gives his team momentum-carrying drives.
BUT… Will we see a 100% Henry straight off the bat? It’s hard to say yes. And with Tennessee ranking in the bottom 10 in the regular season for passing yards allowed, can they put the brakes on the free-scoring Bengals?
They might control time of possession but we all know that the Bengals only need a few chances to pull off a big play.
That explosiveness is crucial; if they can get on top early I think they can see it out, just like they did against the Raiders. I’m calling the upset here, as Cincy ventures further into unknown territory.
Prediction: Bengals 31 Titans 27
49ers @ Packers (-6) – Sunday 01:15
Based on pure ability, Aaron Rodgers deserves to have more than one Super Bowl ring.
But he’ll need to shake off his Playoff jitters and get past a surging 49ers to reach a third straight NFC Championship game.
The path to a road win at a freezing Lambeau is written in stone for San Fran:
Keep running the ball, utilise Deebo Samuel whenever you can, and keep the ball out of Rodgers’ hands.
Of course, it’s easier said than done when there are 80,000 screaming Wisconsinites surrounding you, but Kyle Shanahan’s men did (just) enough in front of 100,000 on the road at Dallas last week.
Jimmy Garoppolo nearly gave the game away with one of his all-too-familiar interceptions late on: He CANNOT do that here, not against a fellow QB this good.
It’s becoming something of a trendy pick to ride the 49ers all the way to an unlikely Super Bowl appearance, but I can’t go against the Packers at home.
The return of Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith gives Green Bay a clear edge, and the home crowd factor will rear its head here; I honestly think they would have beat the Bucs in the NFC Championship last year if fans were allowed in.
Look for a close one before the Packers pull clear in the fourth, aided by one of those Jimmy G picks.
Prediction: 49ers 24 Packers 34
Rams @ Buccaneers (-3) – Sunday 20:00
The Rams won comprehensively in Week 3 against the Bucs but that was a long time ago.
They certainly weren’t as flashy as the Bengals or as dominant as the Packers, but Tampa won their division and last Sunday showed what a real Playoff team looks like.
Tom Brady looked serenely comfortable in his Florida retirement home as he and a 2002-emulating Bucs defense put Philly to the sword.
It’s a different kettle of fish this time but the Rams will be off a short week and going coast to coast.
Not that the Bucs will be completely fresh either: They are sweating on the fitness of Center Ryan Jensen and All-Pro RT Tristan Wirfs.
Sophomore Wirfs is the big one: Without him the O-line looked completely different on Sunday and with the second half of that game the only snaps that the 22-year old has missed in his NFL career, you know that Bruce Arians has been praying to the Football gods for a full recovery.
The star player count is off the charts in this matchup and Vegas clearly thinks it’s too close to call, giving the Bucs a three point handicap, which is bookie speak for: “You might as well flip a coin, the home team gets three points just because they’re at home”.
But there are three things certain in life: Death, Taxes & Tom Brady in the Playoffs. Watch for him to find a way, he almost always does.
Prediction: Rams 32 Buccaneers 34
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Bills @ Chiefs (-2) – Sunday 23:30
This could easily be the AFC Championship game every year straight for the next ten years.
Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes will be the flag bearers at QB for the next ten years (with Joe Burrow close behind) and their previous matchups have seen the duo thrive in the biggest of spotlights.
It was against lesser opposition admittedly but how good did these two offenses look when everything was clicking?! This could rival that Chiefs-Rams game in 2018 for firepower.
It’s the closest handicap of the four games with the highest over/under total, which should tell you everything you need to know.
Buffalo will be thinking about last year and how the Chiefs blew them away in the AFC title game, they’ll be desperate to avoid the same fate.
But in the same way that Tom Brady is to be trusted, I can’t back against a Playoff Chiefs team at home.
Mahomes is 6-1 at Arrowhead in the Postseason and has the extra hunger in wanting to avenge their loss to Buffalo back in Week 5.
Josh Allen isn’t human, but even if he throws for 400 yards, I think Mahomes can trade every single blow. This is like Mike Tyson going up against his clone, expect haymakers every second, every minute, every quarter.
Don’t you just love Football?
Prediction: Bills 38 Chiefs 44
Acca:
Bengals
Packers
Buccaneers
Chiefs
Pays 9.73/1
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