The space industry could be impacted by disruptions or by sanctions against Russia — particularly when it comes to missions utilizing Russian Soyuz rockets — and winners and losers are starting to emerge.
“The biggest beneficiary of any exclusion or sanction is SpaceX and the Falcon 9, and to a lesser extent maybe the Falcon Heavy [rocket]” Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank Space analyst told Yahoo Finance Live.
Alternatively, One Web (a competitor to SpaceX’s Starlink satellite program) and the the European Space Agency could be be adversely impacted given their dependency on Russian rockets.
“The European space apparatus is very dependent on Russian rockets, and Russian rocket technology ,” said Yu.
The analyst notes Russia already withdrew its staff from the European spaceport at French Guiana, which means upcoming launches will likely be delayed.
Russia’s participation involving the International Space Station may eventually change as well.
“This is extremely complex,” said Yu. “My base case is that you would not see the Russians go up there and take a chunk of it and do something with it. It’s too interconnected, and too much corporation over the years that it would not make much sense to walk away.”
“Ultimately the progress on it will go on, but the Russian involvement likely becomes less and less and less,” he added.
“My sense is that Russia would probably work closer with China on their new space station that they’re putting up at the moment,” said Yu.
Yu says his long term top pick within the publicly traded space related companies is Rocket Lab (RKLB).
“In the near term, there’s going to be a lot of volatility for geopolitical reasons, but if you look at long term implications for a company such as Rocket Lab, from less dependence on Russian rockets — that gives them a much bigger opportunity to use their upcoming rocket Neutron to do a lot more missions.’
“The end-game is that their rockets are going to fly more and be much more strategically important,” he added.
Ines is a markets reporter covering equities. Follow her on Twitter at @ines_ferre
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