The opposing theories on Nicola Bulley explained: Police and private diving team remain at loggerheads over whether the missing mother drowned in river or whether third party was involved on day 12 of search
- Read more: Expert diver dramatically ends river search for Nicola Bulley
The disappearance of Nicola Bulley has left private experts, detectives and former police officers scratching their heads and asking: What has happened to the mother-of-two?
There have been competing theories ever since the mother-of-two vanished from the village of St. Michael’s on Wyre, in Lancashire, on January 27 of this year.
While police believe she somehow fell into the River Wyre and drowned, others fear she was abducted and taken to an unknown location.
And 12 days later, there remain a multitude of unanswered questions as the desperate search for clues continues.
So what DO we know?
The 45-year-old was last seen with her springer spaniel Willow at 9.10am on January 27.
A dogwalker who regularly saw Nicola confirmed to police that she spotted her on the ‘upper field’, near the wooden fence that backs onto the Rowanwater holiday park.
At around 9.20am, her mobile phone is found on a nearby bench while the dog’s harness is next to it on the ground.
The alarm is raised by a passerby, who ties Willow to the bench while they go and call for help.
When police arrive to the scene, they find no trace of Nicola, while Willow the dog appears agitated and distressed, but is ‘bone dry’.
The drowning theory
Lancashire Police maintain that during the 10-minute window between Nicola last being seen and her phone being found that she, for whatever reason, approached the river, fell in and drowned, before her body floated downstream towards the sea.
They have suggested in recent days that her black puffer jacket may have weighed her down, and that she could have been collecting a tennis ball for her dog when the tragic accident occurred.
Nicola Bulley, 45, was last seen with her springer spaniel Willow (pictured together) at 9.10am on January 27
READ MORE: When will divers finish search for Nicola Bulley and why was phone left behind? 10 key questions as hunt for the mother-of-two continues
Police Superintendent Sally Riley noted how she was wearing another coat under her puffer and ‘ankle-length wellingtons’ that could have filled with water. She said all that clothing would have proven heavy after entering the water, ‘particularly on someone who is of slight build and only 5 foot three.’
Meanwhile, outdoor swimming expert Camilla Golledge also told MailOnline that the shock of the cold water could limit a person’s ability to swim to safety.
The Kent-based instructor said: ‘People are experiencing cold water shock at the moment because the water is so cold… which means that your natural response if to take a big gasp of air, meaning water will fill your lungs.
‘Everybody would experience it unless you are an experienced outdoor swimmer.
‘It has less to do with the clothes. They certainly won’t help.’
She said Ms Bulley may have been unable to call for help, especially because her clothes and wellies would have weighed her down.
‘Most people suffering from cold water shock or drowning in open water are people that did not mean to be there,’ Ms Golledge said.
‘What you need to do is coach your breathing, get in slowly, rather than falling or jumping in.
‘Even I as an experienced open water swimmer, I get in slowly and I have to coach my breathing. My body does feel shock with that unnatural breath in.’
Supt Riley said there were no reports of anyone in distress, no shouting or splashing, and no footprints were found on the bank.
Nicola has not yet been found in the area of the river closest to the bench, but police are now focusing their attention in the lower estuary and close to the river’s mouth by the Irish Sea.
Despite the police’s insistence on the drowning theory, a growing number of friends and experts are casting doubt on the idea
Among them has been Peter Faulding, leader of underwater search experts Specialist Group International (SGI), who were roped in to search a section of the river in a bid to find Nicola.
Mr Faulding appeared at loggerheads with police from the start as he repeatedly floated the idea of a ‘third party’ being involved in the disappearance.
The idea was supported by friends who noted that Nicola was a strong swimmer and that Willow was found bone dry – arguing that surely the dog would have jumped in after her owner had she fallen in.
They also claimed Nicola no longer took the tennis ball with Willow when they went for a walk.
Police released a CCTV image of missing mother Nicola Bulley (pictured) as the search continued this week. Police have suggested in recent days that her black puffer jacket may have weighed her down after she fell into the icy water
Mr Faulding also maintained that if Nicola’s body was in fact in the river, it would have been found in the stretch of water closest to where the phone and harness were discovered.
That area was searched by police divers on the day Nicola vanished, but Mr Faulding re-searched it again over three days this week, using a high-tech sonar camera.
But he confirmed with confidence today that Nicola was NOT in the water.
He said: ‘We are happy that the area where Nicola’s phone was found and the harness, we’ve thoroughly searched it from all the way down to the weir and up to the bridge, about a mile upstream, and we’ve confirmed to Paul [her partner] that there’s nothing in that area.
‘That’s been dived by police dive teams three times as well… and on the day that Nicola went missing it was dived in the afternoon, with no sign of Nicola.’
He added: ‘I’ve worked on some weird cases, but this is a baffling case. For someone whose mobile phone was found there… I would’ve expected Nicola to be found that afternoon by the police dive team, normally down in the water, but there was no sign of her.’
He said he simply ‘didn’t know’ where Nicola was, adding: ‘I was determined to find Nicola, but one good thing is that I didn’t want to find a body, so I’m happy we haven’t found Nicola’s body, which can lead to other areas, so we don’t know if Nicola is alive, this is just a baffling case.
Paul Ansell, 44, pictured with diving expert Peter Faulding who told the anxious father ‘she’s not here’, during a third extensive day of searching along the River Wyre in Lancashire
‘After the end of today, we’ve done what we’ve come here to do, we’ve cleared the area for the police and the family, we can say that in the top section of river and some of the section going down towards the sea, that she’s not in that part.’
He said he could not comment on ‘further down the estuary’ because his team was not searching that area.
‘We just want to bring some form of closure,’ he added, ‘And I say again that I’m happy we never found a body and Paul is relieved we found nothing up there.’
The SGI team are leaving today and will not be helping Lancashire Police search the ‘lower estuary’ of the River Wyre. However the force told MailOnline their search remains ‘ongoing’ and that there was no deadline in place for it to end.
They have extended their search 10 miles away towards Fleetwood and the Irish Sea in the belief her body has been swept away from the point of entry in the village of St Michael’s on the Wyre.
Mr Faulding disputes the police theory that the body could have ended up so far away and in the Irish Sea.
Based on his 20 years of experience in finding drowning victims he insisted her body would have remained at the bottom of the river for several days and police would have found her.
While they are sticking with the drowning theory for now, police last night did admit that Nicola could have left the area with a third party when she vanished.
Could she have been abducted?
Superintendent Sally Riley, of Lancashire Police, said last night that it remained a ‘possibility’ that the 45-year-old left the area by one path not covered by CCTV cameras – but added that ‘every single’ suspicion or criminal suggestion had so far been discounted.
The path in question is crossed by the main road through the village, and officers are scrambling to trace dashcam footage from 700 drivers who passed along the route at the time she disappeared.
After reviewing other CCTV footage, police are confident that Nicola did not leave the field near the river via Rowanwater.
According to Google satellite images, that leaves just two routes out of the field, one takes you behind a caravan park while another leads to an exit near the parish church.
Nicola Bulley (pictured with her partner Paul) vanished while walking her dog Willow along the riverbed on January 27, moments after dropping her two children off at school. She was last seen at 9.10am by a fellow dogwalker, before her phone and her pup’s harness were found on a nearby bench at around 9.20am, and the alarm was raised
It means any would-be abductor would have had just 10 minutes to overpower Nicola and remove her from an open field without being seen.
They would have also been very fortunate to have taken the only route not covered by CCTV cameras – or at least been aware that there were none covering the area in question.
It comes after a friend of Nicola claimed that one camera that would have ‘seen everything’ was not working the day she disappeared, sparking speculation that it had been tampered with by a would-be attacker.
The exact location of which camera was faulty has yet to be confirmed.
Mr Faulding had said that if his team did not find Nicola in the water using his sonar equipment, then it was his belief that she had not been in the river, raising the prospect of a ‘third party’ involvement in the disappearance.
During a spate of TV interviews, he also suggested that the phone left on the bench may have been a ‘decoy’ to confuse arriving investigators.
Who would want to abduct Nicola?
But by all accounts, Nicola does not have any enemies or people that would want to bring her harm.
Mr Faulding this week said he had spoken with Nicola’s ‘distraught’ partner Paul to keep him updated on the search.
He said: ‘I spoke to Paul last night and asked him if she had any enemies, any stalkers, the normal questions you would ask. And nothing, he said no. And she was totally normal that day when she left, nothing out the ordinary.’
He told LBC: ‘It was a totally normal day, she didn’t take much with her, and she’s just disappeared like she’s been taken by aliens.
‘There are detectives working all hours trying to piece the missing parts of the jigsaw puzzle that no one – nobody – knows where Nicola is.
‘The river has got to be searched, police can’t ignore the river, but in the background there’s lots of other good work going on. This is just one part of a huge police operation.’
And while cruel trolls have suggested Paul could have been involved, he was immediately cleared by police.
He had been working from home on the day Nicola vanished and CCTV footage and other information immediately confirmed it.
Source: Read Full Article
