Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props
All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Tuesday’s playoff games
Point Giannis While Giannis Antetokounmpo is no stranger to putting up points, he’s also familiar with playing point forward when needed. Jrue Holiday remains an elite two-way point guard, but Game 1 in Boston saw Antetokounmpo tally a game-high 17 potential assists on a team-high 55 passes. Antetokounmpo has an assist prop of 6.5 entering a critical Game 2 at TD Garden, the continued absence of Khris Middleton suggests he is in a good spot to produce as a playmaker.
Passing Profits: Speaking of scoring forces who can also distribute, Jordan Poole and Jayson Tatum each paced their teams with 16 potential assists on Sunday. Poole likely won’t be creating for others in Game 2 as long as Draymond Green stays active, but there’s still real value in his assist prop that hovers around five on Tuesday. With Marcus Smart injured, Tatum will be tasked with distribution duties and his assist prop of 5.5 could prove rewarding. The Bucks like to pack the paint on defense giving Tatum plenty of drive-and-kick opportunities.
Glue Guy: The Grizzlies have had to adapt to playoff basketball. The team has removed limited frontcourt options such as Xavier Tillman and Steven Adams from the rotation when challenged by smaller looks. Enter Brandon Clarke, who has been tasked to deliver as the team’s premier glass cleaner and rim-runner since midway through the first round. With a game-high 20 rebounding chances in Game 1 and with Adams ruled out for Game 2, Clarke is poised to play at least 30 minutes, presenting value for rebounding and double-double props.
Boston Bounce Back 1.0: Boston went 10-of-34 (29.4%) from inside the arc in Game 1 against the Bucks, something they did not do during the regular season or the first round of the playoffs. In fact, they shot under 45% from inside the arc only seven times this season. In the games following a poor shooting performance, the Celtics were able to turn things around shooting 55.5% of their 2-pointers. If Boston settles for as many 3’s as they did on Sunday and make their 2’s at an efficient rate, they will score an additional 17.7 points than they did in Game 1. That level of improvement not only earns them the win, but will also cover the spread.
Boston Bounce Back 2.0: The Celtics were launched plenty of 3’s in Game 1 (59.5% of their field goal attempts). To some degree, that’s by design given the Bucks’ defensive strategy of taking away the easy shots in favor of good looks from beyond the arc. But is that a good game plan to beat the Celtics? It appeared that way in Game 1, but during the regular season, Boston went 7-7 when at least half their shots were triples. In those 14 games, Boston outscored their opponent by an average of 6.2 PPG. It is very likely that Milwaukee is going to continue to implement this game plan, but Boston has shown they can have big success facing this sort of defense.
You Only Get On Shot: The Grizzlies competed hard and nearly came away with a victory in Game 1, but did they miss their chance? Memphis had won 10 straight games when making at least 16 3-pointers prior to Sunday afternoon and Golden State was just 10-13 this regular season when shooting under 73% from the free-throw line. While neither of those thresholds are likely to be met on a consistent basis, it was not enough to get Memphis a win. Winning consecutive road games is difficult in the postseason, but all signs seem to be pointing in Golden State’s direction and the spread is far from prohibitive.
Game of the night
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
7 p.m ET, TD Garden, Boston
Line: Celtics (-4.5)
Money line: Celtics (-200), Bucks (+170)
Total: 215.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.7 points
BPI Win%: 66.1%
Questionable: Marcus Smart (quad)
Ruled out: George Hill (abdomen),
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Notable: Not a single Bucks over ticket has cashed this postseason, but they have covered each of their past four.
Best bet: Under 215.5 points. The Bucks are all of a sudden playing defense like the Celtics did during the regular season. Milwaukee currently owns a 93.5 Defensive Rating in the postseason. The next closest team is Miami at 104.1. Antetokounmpo was dominant in Game 1, and with the Celtics in a pseudo “must-win” situation at home in Game 2, I expect them to drive the pace and tempo of this game. Boston operates at a much slower pace than the Bucks, and we all know how great their defense is. Only one of the six games the Bucks have played this postseason has gone over this total — and that was a 116-100 win over Chicago in Game 5. — Tyler Fulghum
Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 34.5 points + assists. Tatum was unable to establish a rhythm on Sunday due to the full-court pressure and physicality of the Bucks. While he had a subpar game, the Celtics have had some time to prepare for Game 2 and Tatum will step up. He averaged 29.5 PPG and 7.3 APG in Boston’s first round series against the Nets. So in reality, if Tatum can’t get going, the Celtics will not beat the Bucks. — Eric Moody
Best bet: Grayson Allen over 10.5 points. The Celtics will look to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo after he dropped his second career playoff triple-double on 36% shooting in Game 1. Boston will make adjustments which will allow Allen to get open looks. He has averaged 12.7 PPG so far in the playoffs. — Moody
Best bet: Brook Lopez over 4.5 rebounds. Lopez is back in game shape, enough that he has averaged 28.7 MPG in the playoffs thus far. And, because the Celtics play a large, traditional line-up, there are no mismatches that would force him to leave the court. The Celtics frontcourt will be focused on slowing down Giannis, leaving Lopez and Bobby Portis to work against mismatches and get less-contested rebounds. Lopez grabbed 10 boards in Game 1, and has at least five boards in five of his six playoffs games so far. — Snellings
Best bet: Jrue Holiday over 31.5 points + assists + rebounds. Holiday is a perfect lieutenant to Antetokounmpo, because he’ll defer to Giannis’ lead but will also step up offensively when he needs to. I expect the Celtics to go all-in on defending Antetokounmpo in Game 2, allowing Holiday to work with less attention. — Snellings
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
9:30 p.m ET, FedEx Forum, Memphis
Line: Warriors (-2.0)
Money line: Warriors (-130), Grizzlies (+110)
Total: 227.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.6 points
BPI Win%: (68.1%)
Questionable: None
Ruled Out: Andre Iguodala (neck), Steven Adams (COVID-19 protocols)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Notable: The nail-biting Game 1 win was nice for Golden State, but it didn’t result in a cover and dropped the Warriors to 5-11 ATS over their past 16 road games.
Best bet: Stephen Curry over 26.5 points. Dillon Brooks and the Grizzlies did a great job defending Curry in Game 1. In spite of a few open shots, Curry managed to score 24 points. The only open triples Curry did have, came from Draymond Green, who was ejected late in the first half and played only 25 minutes. Curry should have more opportunities in Game 2. — Moody
Best bet: Draymond Green over 14.5 assists + rebounds. Green plays an important role in this series because rebounding, second chances, and possessions will be critical. Golden State’s playmakers will be able to rely on the Green for tons of rebounds and assists. He has averaged 5.2 RPG and 6.7 RPG in the playoffs so far. — Moody
Best bets: Draymond Green over 6.5 assists; over 2.5 steals + blocks
Green got booted from Game 1 — and lost his appeal to lower his infraction from a Flagrant 2 to a Flagrant 1 — so he’ll be back looking to make an impact in Game 2. He can do that by creating for his teammates and playing lights-out defense. Memphis has the highest TO% of any of the eight remaining teams in the playoffs, and Green posted three steals and one block in just 17 minutes of work on Sunday. — Fulghum
Best bet: Klay Thompson over 3.5 3-pointers. Thompson has had two straight poor games, shooting 34.4% from the field, 25% from 3-point range and 66.7% from the line. He missed two crucial free throws at the end of Game 1 that almost cost the Warriors the game. It is exceedingly rare for Thompson to shoot that poorly, and he is ripe for a bounce-back. In his past four playoffs games, he shot 52.8% from the field and 50% from behind the arc, making 5.3 3PG. I think that level is closer to expectation for Game 2. — Snellings
Best bet: Desmond Bane over 17.5 points. This prediction is predicated on Bane being healthy enough to play near full speed, which is risky since he’s listed as questionable with a sore back. Bane is coming off his worst scoring performance of the postseason with only nine points on 3-of-10 FG, after averaging 27.0 PPG on 51.4 FG% in his previous four games. The Grizzlies absolutely need Bane to produce on this level if they want to get back in the series. I look for him to have every opportunity to shine if his health allows. — Snellings
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