Does the scoreboard heat up as the temperatures outside drop? Over the past four seasons, overs have cashed 51.3% of the time in games played in December, a significant bump from the 43.9% rate in the four seasons prior. Even more telling encouraging for over bettors is those trends compared to the first three months of the season:
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2019-22: 51.3% over rate in December (47% prior)
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2015-18: 43.9% over rate in December (50.8% prior)
That’s a decent sample that hints at overs being an increasingly good play as the regular season wears on, something that wasn’t the case just a few short years ago. As for team-by-team trends and leaguewide betting nuggets … you know I have you covered.
Thursday 8:15 p.m.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 43) at Seattle Seahawks
49ers ATS: 8-5
O/U: 6-7
What we know about the 49ers: The 49ers have covered four straight games, and three of those covers have been by at least 11 points.
Seahawks ATS: 6-7
O/U: 8-5
What we know about the Seahawks: After four straight covers, the Seahawks have now failed to cover four straight (over tickets have cashed in the past three).
Sunday 1:00 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4, 43)
Falcons ATS: 7-6
O/U: 6-7
What we know about the Falcons: Three straight, and five of six, Falcons games have finished with a cover margin of less than a field goal.
Saints ATS: 5-8
O/U: 6-7
What we know about the Saints: In October, four straight Saints games went over the total. But in the six games prior, unders had come through five times.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 48)
Colts ATS: 5-8
O/U: 4-9
What we know about the Colts: Overs are 3-1 in Colts games after coming through in just one of the nine games prior.
Vikings ATS: 6-6-1
O/U: 8-5
What we know about the Vikings: The past four Vikings home games have seen a correlation between the team that covers and the total. In the three Minnesota covers, over tickets also cashed. The Vikings’ lone under during this streak came in a game they weren’t close to covering (40-3 loss to the Cowboys).
Dallas Cowboys (-5, 48) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cowboys ATS: 8-5
O/U: 7-6
What we know about the Cowboys: The Cowboys have seen five of their past six games go over the total. The odd part? In the lone exception was when they hung 40 points on the Vikings.
Jaguars ATS: 5-8
O/U: 7-6
What we know about the Jaguars: Overs are 7-3 when the Jags are underdogs (0-3 otherwise).
Detroit Lions (-1, 44) at New York Jets
Lions ATS: 9-4
O/U: 9-4
What we know about the Lions: The Lions have covered six straight, and in their nine covers this season, overs are 7-2.
Jets ATS: 8-5
O/U: 5-8
What we know about the Jets: Have sportsbooks figured out the Jets? Five of their past seven games have finished within five points of the spread.
Kansas City Chiefs (-14, 48) at Houston Texans
Chiefs ATS: 5-8
O/U: 6-7
What we know about the Chiefs: As good as the Chiefs are, they’ve failed to cover consecutive games three times this season and have yet to cover consecutive games.
Texans ATS: 5-7-1
O/U: 5-8
What we know about the Texans: The Texans are 5-4 ATS when the over/under is over 43 points (0-3-1 otherwise)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 42)
Dolphins ATS: 6-7
O/U: 6-7
What we know about the Dolphins: Miami has failed to cover three straight road games, though they’ve covered their past two played at home.
Bills ATS: 5-6-2
O/U: 3-10
What we know about the Bills: That’s now five straight unders for the Bills when playing a divisional opponent.
Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 48) at Chicago Bears
Eagles ATS: 8-5
O/U: 9-4
What we know about the Eagles: The Eagles have covered three straight games, and all three of those games have gone over the total.
Bears ATS: 4-8-1
O/U: 9-4
What we know about the Bears: Four straight Chicago games have seen the Bears fail to cover and the over cash.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 38)
Steelers ATS: 6-6-1
O/U: 5-8
What we know about the Steelers: Unders are 5-1 in the six games the Steelers have covered this season.
Panthers ATS: 7-6
O/U: 5-8
What we know about the Panthers: Four straight covers for the Panthers (opened the season 3-6 ATS).
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3, 37)
Ravens ATS: 5-7-1
O/U: 4-9
What we know about the Ravens: Unders are 5-1 in Baltimore games when the projected total is over 45 points.
Browns ATS: 6-6-1
O/U: 7-5-1
What we know about the Browns: After just two of their first 10 games went under the total, the Browns have seen three straight games do so.
Sunday 4:05 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos
Cardinals ATS: 6-7
O/U: 7-5-1
What we know about the Cardinals: Each of Arizona’s past five games have finished within six points of the projected total.
Broncos ATS: 5-8
O/U: 2-11
What we know about the Broncos: The Broncos have covered consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 8-9 of last season.
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders
Patriots ATS: 7-5-1
O/U: 5-8
What we know about the Patriots: Under tickets have come through in five of New England’s past six games.
Raiders ATS: 6-7
O/U: 6-6-1
What we know about the Raiders: Overs are 3-1-1 when the Raiders play in Vegas but just 3-5 on the road.
Sunday 4:25 p.m.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 44) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bengals ATS: 10-3
O/U: 4-8-1
What we know about the Bengals: The Bengals have covered five straight, but it’s worth noting they covered their final four games last regular season prior to their run to the Super Bowl.
Buccaneers ATS: 3-9-1
O/U: 3-10
What we know about the Buccaneers: The Bucs are 81 points worse this season than sportsbooks have projected them. Remember when they started the season 2-0 ATS?
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 46)
Titans ATS: 8-5
O/U: 5-8
What we know about the Titans: Three of Tennessee’s past four games have had a cover margin of at least 13 points.
Chargers ATS: 8-5
O/U: 6-7
What we know about the Chargers: Unders are 4-1 in the five games in which the Chargers have not been favored this season.
Sunday 8:20 p.m.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-4.5, 39)
Giants ATS: 9-4
O/U: 5-8
What we know about the Giants: Unders were 7-2 to open the season in Giants games but are just 1-3 since.
Commanders ATS: 7-5-1
O/U: 4-9
What we know about the Commanders: Washington is locked into a sixth consecutive season with at least as many unders as overs.
Monday 8:15 p.m.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7, 40)
Rams ATS: 4-8-1
O/U: 5-8
What we know about the Rams: Baker Mayfield has been a part of as many Rams covers since the beginning of October as Matthew Stafford.
Packers ATS: 5-8
O/U: 7-6
What we know about the Packers: The Packers have seen four straight games go over the total: 2014 was the last time they saw a streak extend to five straight.
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