NO cut at the second of the three FedEx Cup play-offs, this week’s BMW Championship – which will be a relief to Rory McIlroy.
McIlroy failed to make it through to the weekend at the St Jude Championship, backing up the theory that his Open slip-up and a few weeks off meant he did not deserve his position as a clear favourite last week.
The world No 3 again heads the market this week, and something else that remains unchanged is that he does not exactly look great value at 10-1.
McIlroy looks increasingly like a player who performs best at courses he knows and likes. This week’s venue, Wilmington Country Club in Delaware, is a new one for practically everyone in the field.
The lack of previous form over this track makes things more difficult, so I would rather go for players who have a bit of momentum at the moment.
That certainly applies to Jon Rahm, who showed signs that he is finally ready to end a grim run of results with a share of fifth place last week.
But his price, around 14-1 looks a bit skinny on such scant evidence that the former world No 1 is back. The fact this is a new test should open things up for players further down the market.
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Hot shot: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 16-1
The US Open champion has had easily the best year of his career, and finishing alongside Rahm in fifth at Memphis last week suggests he may not be done yet.
The Sheffield golfer’s first Major triumph did not come out of the blue – it was one of six top ten finishes he has posted in his last eight starts, and he is the type of golfer who will relish a new challenge.
Wilmington is expected to favour the bombers. But Fitzpatrick has repeatedly shown he can compete on long courses, and his deadly putting will be a huge asset on what are reported to be massive greens.
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Mid price: Sungjae Im, 22-1
You could argue that Im lost momentum with his 12th place in Memphis last week, following back-to-back runner-up finishes. I prefer to look at the positives.
The Korean star was the best player in the field off the tee – he simply could not get the putter to behave – and hitting these narrow fairways this time is expected to prove crucial.
Im has now recorded ten top three finishes, including two victories, even though he is only in his fourth season on the PGA Tour. I think he’s ready to challenge for a third victory at this level.
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Long shot: J.T.Poston, 80-1
With only 68 players teeing it up in Delaware there are not too many fancy prices on offer. But most leading bookies offer each way odds on the first seven, and Poston could be worth an interest.
He was outside the top 200 in the world rankings five months ago, but has climbed to a career high 56th on the back of a win at the John Deere Championship and two other top three efforts.
It was no surprise to see him miss the cut at the Open after a last minute dash to St Andrews following his John Deere victory. Since then he has finished T11-T20-T21 in top company, so he looks good value here.
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