Alarm bells for Tories as poll shows 10-POINT lead for Labour in ‘Red Wall’ a week before crucial by-elections
- Poll of Red Wall voters reveals 46% plan to back Labour at next general election
- This Redfield and Wilton Strategies survey finds 36% would vote Conservative
- The results will increase Tory fears ahead of next week’s Wakefield by-election
The Tories are braced for more by-election misery after a new poll revealed Labour holds a 10-point lead in ‘Red Wall’ seats.
A survey of voters in 40 mainly northern constituencies revealed nearly half (46 per cent) plan to back Labour at a next general election.
This compares to 36 per cent who would vote Conservative.
The Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll, conducted in 40 seats that are held by the Tories in traditionally Labour-supporting areas, will increase concerns ahead of next week’s Wakefield by-election.
Boris Johnson is seeking to hold the West Yorkshire constituency, which was taken from Labour by his Conservatives at the 2019 general election.
But Tory chances of success have been largely written off, with Labour odds-on with bookies to win back the seat.
The by-election contest next Thursday – being held less than three weeks after the Prime Minister’s battering by Tory rebels in a no confidence vote – was prompted by ex-Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan’s child sex assault conviction.
A poll of Red Wall voters revealed nearly half (46 per cent) plan to back Labour at a next general election
The PM’s net approval rating in Red Wall seats was found to be -18 per cent, with 50 per cent disapproving of Boris Johnson’s performance and 32 per cent approving
Sir Keir Starmer was found to hold a net approval rating of -3 per cent, with 33 per cent disapproving of the Labour leader’s performance and 30 per cent approving
The PM is seeking to hold onto Wakefield at next week’s by-election – a seat that was taken from Labour by his Conservatives at the 2019 general election
Labour are odds-on with bookies to win back the West Yorkshire constituency – with Sir Keir eyeing a by-election boost in the Red Wall
Tory misery could be compounded by a further loss in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election being contested on the same day, which is being held due to the resignation of Tory MP Neil Parish after he admitted to watching porn in the House of Commons chamber.
Conservative MPs have put Mr Johnson on notice that he could face a fresh challenge to his leadership if he oversees defeat in both by-elections.
Defeat in Wakefield will make those Tory MPs who represent ‘Red Wall’ seats especially nervous about their chances of holding their seats at the next general election.
Redfield and Wilton Strategies surveyed 1,500 voters in 40 constituencies that were won by the Tories at the 2019 general election, as well as Hartlepool – a seat the Conservatives won from Labour at a by-election in 2021.
The 40 seats are mostly northern and traditionally Labour-voting constituencies.
The poll found 90 per cent of those who voted Labour in 2019 said they would vote Labour again.
This compared to 64 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 saying they would vote Conservative again.
The PM’s net approval rating in Red Wall seats was found to be -18 per cent, with 50 per cent disapproving of Mr Johnson’s performance and 32 per cent approving.
Sir Keir Starmer was found to hold a net approval rating of -3 per cent, with 33 per cent disapproving of the Labour leader’s performance and 30 per cent approving.
Close to one-third (31 per cent) said their neither approved nor disapproved of Sir Keir’s performance.
More than half (54 per cent) had trust in the Conservatives to deliver on immigration, with 46 per cent saying they had no trust at all in the Tories on the issue
More than three-fifths (61 per cent) had trust in Labour to deliver on immigration, with 39 per cent saying they had no trust at all in the party on the issue
However, asked to choose between Sir Keir and Mr Johnson as to who would be the better Prime Minister, Red Wall voters were evenly split with 37 per cent backing each party leader
A quarter (25 per cent) said they didn’t know.
It has been claimed that Number 10 is keen to push through its Rwanda migration plan due to it being seen as a ‘wedge issue’ between the Conservatives and Labour.
The Redfield and Wilton poll revealed more than half (54 per cent) had trust in the Conservatives to deliver on immigration, with 46 per cent saying they had no trust at all in the Tories on the issue.
More than three-fifths (61 per cent) had trust in Labour to deliver on immigration, with 39 per cent saying they had no trust at all in the party on the issue.
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