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Anyone recall “Red Dragon,” the 2002 Edward Norton movie? It was a solid flick, bringing back Anthony Hopkins’ Hannibal Lecter character for a prequel to “Silence of the Lambs.” Nevertheless, it is largely forgotten.
But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t fun, interesting and a fine film on its own merits. But because it was inferior to its predecessor, because it was essentially a remake of the 1980’s movie “Manhunter” and based on the same novel, because it did nothing exceptional to separate itself from either, it became forgettable. Or as one pal so expertly described it: The best movie ever with no reason to exist.
With that, I bring the “Red Dragon” of fantasy analysis: broad-reaching forecasts based on defensive matchups, matchups that rely on data from 2020 and earlier, because that’s all we have right now. Sure, it’s fun, and it can be interesting, but ultimately it has no reason to exist.
With the release of the 2021 NFL schedule, we now know the order and timing of matchups across the entire season. But it is far too soon to break down short weeks versus long weeks, much less forecast injuries or road-trip weariness or potential weather hazards. We’ll leave that for later.
For now, we focus just the soon-to-be-forgettable breakdown of team versus team based on past fantasy generosity by opposing defenses. But don’t worry, we’ll give you plenty to forget. We’ll start with quarterbacks.
Our first stop involves a pair of top-tier names. The two toughest schedules for QBs across the entire league belong to the Ravens and Seahawks. So Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson have a hard road ahead, based on recent defensive history. The collective opposition on both schedules yields fewer than 19 fantasy points fewer per game to opposing QBs. The league average is just more than 20.
Other QBs with difficult roads include Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr, and, to a lesser extent, Daniel Jones. That doesn’t mean you have to steer clear of these QBs, but maybe only grab them if they slip in your draft.
On the flip side are two potential bargains. Carson Wentz and the Saints’ starter — Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill — have the easiest fantasy schedules, based on current data. Both will face defenses that give up more than one point a week, on average, above the league average.
The Saints’ case is particularly interesting, considering four of their first five matchups are against above-average fantasy defenses versus QBs — the Packers, the Patriots, the Giants and Washington, with the Panthers providing a Week 2 breather. So whomever has the job could get off to a slow start. That could prompt a QB change, or could lead fantasy owners to dump their shares of the starter.
Following a Week 5 bye, the final 12 matchups feature just two better-than-average QB defenses. So that could provide an opportunity to snag a QB off waivers in-season, or acquire cheaply by trade one who is on a solid offensive team with a favorable schedule. That would be a nice find.
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