Of the 19 automatic Champions League slots across the five major European leagues, just eight have already been clinched. Belated congratulations to Manchester City, Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, both Milan sides and Real Madrid.
Three of them are still in this year’s semifinals; we’ll see all of them again next season.
With no more than five games left in any of the five leagues, what’s still at stake? For our purposes, we’re also going to consider Chelsea and Napoli clinched since they both have greater than 99% odds to qualify, per FiveThirtyEight. By that same metric, there are currently 16 clubs that have at least a 10% chance of reaching next season’s Champions League either through the domestic table or the Europa League. (Sorry to Real Sociedad, Strasbourg, Union Berlin, and Fiorentina, who all have a less than 10% chance.)
Here’s how they all stack up, in order of the likelihood that they achieve their goal.
All odds come from FiveThirtyEight’s SPI projections.
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