Britain could become a tinderbox AGAIN this summer as Met Office refuses to rule out temperatures hitting 40C in the next two months – after sweltering heatwave scorched the country last year
- Met Office said odds of a hotter than average summer had more than doubled
The Met Office said it cannot rule out record breaking 40c temperatures again this summer as it predicted higher than normal temperatures today.
The UK smashed temperature records last year – when thermometers hit 40.3c in Coningsby, Lincolnshire – a staggering 1.6c higher than the previous all-time high.
The Met Office said that the odds of a hotter than average summer in the UK for the next two months had now more than doubled.
Summer is well on the way to being hotter than normal, the forecasters said.
June has already been a scorching 2 degrees warmer than the average over the last three decades.
Now, forecasters say for the remainder of the summer, the UK has a 45 per cent chance of being hotter than the average between 1991-2020.
The Met Office said that the odds of a hotter than average summer in the UK for the next two months had now more than doubled. Pictured are sun-seekers on Bournemouth beach today
This month has already seen Britain sizzle as the first heatwave of the sent sent temperatures soaring. The blissful sunshine was welcomed by these music lovers at the Isle of Wight Festival on June 15
Now, forecasters say for the remainder of the summer, the UK has a 45 per cent chance of being hotter than the average between 1991-2020. Pictured: Fans arrive at the Isle of Wight Festival during last week’s heatwave
Will Lang who leads the Met Office’s National Weather Warning Service told a news conference that we might be in for record breaking temperatures over the next two months.
He said: ‘Extremes such as 40 degrees are by definition unlikely, but not impossible.
READ MORE: Get ready for ANOTHER heatwave: Met Office says Britain could swelter under 30C sunshine at the weekend after warning that parts of the country will be battered by thunder
‘Given we have an increased probability of hot weather overall for the summer, it does increase the risk of extreme high temperatures,’ he added.
When temperatures exceeded 40c for the first time in July last year the Met Office issued a red severe weather warning alert of ‘exceptional high temperatures’ with ‘population-wide adverse health effects…leading to potential serious illness or danger to life’.
While there is a 40 per cent chance the summer will be warmer, the chance of it being merely average is placed at 50 per cent.
There is just a 5 per cent chance it will now be cooler than average.
To qualify as being ‘hotter than average’ average UK summer temperatures have to be 20 per cent hotter than 14.5c, the average UK summer temperature for night and day.
Mr Lang said ‘it is certainly on the cards that we will see more hot spells throughout the summer, however we’re not ruling out there being still near average or cool summer conditions overall.’
Conditions will get brighter at the end of the week – into the high 20s and by the weekend temperatures could reach low 30s
A person makes the most of the scenic sea views at Keyhaven marshes in Hampshire’s New Forest today
Sunbathers on the beach enjoying the scorching hot sunshine and clear blue skies at the seaside resort of Lyme Regis earlier this month
The Met Office refused to rule out whether to UK would hit 40C temperatures, saying the odds of a hotter than average summer in the UK for the next two months had now more than doubled. Pictured: sunbathers lying on the grass in Green Park, London
The weather forecasters said that by the middle of this century temperatures of more than 40c could be expected every five years under a scenario of ‘high’ levels of greenhouse gas emissions.
By 2070 they suggested that global warming could lead UK temperatures could be around 4c hotter than today.
This would give London temperatures similar to that of Nice on the French Riviera and 20 per cent less rainfall than we currently have.
But Jeff Knight the Met Office’s Monthly to Decadal Prediction scientist said that while it may sound agreeable, a ‘Mediterranean’ UK would not be as nice as Nice.
Unlike the sun-kissed Mediterranean resort, a UK that is 4c hotter would be intensely ‘variable’, so our hotter temperatures would be accompanied by rapidly changing conditions.
He said: A Mediterranean climate is not going to be a good analogue for the UK, the UK climate will see a lot more variability than you see in the Mediterranean.
‘We live in different climate regimes.
A couple with a dog sitting outside a colourful seafront beach hut in Dorset while enjoying the scorching hot sunshine in Lyme Regis
A group of friends pose for a picture at Download Festival earlier this month as they enjoyed the baking heat
‘So in the Mediterranean in the summer, we have very consistent patterns of weather that last all through the summer.
‘However, for the UK, as you’re probably painfully aware, we can get sort of our pattern of depressions and high pressures, fluctuations in the weather all year round, including in the summer.’
Further impacts of hotter weather in the UK would include an increase in strokes, impacts on livestock and crops, ‘increased stress on electricity distribution systems’, increased stress on people with respiratory problems and the NHS, and a risk to lakes and rivers.
He added that while we may get 20 less rain overall in the future, ‘there is also going to be an increased likelihood of intense localised downpours,’ such as were seen in London when a month’s worth of rain – 47.8mm – fell in a single hour, leading to tube stations flooding.’
This is due to being close to the ‘high energy’ weather systems coming in from the Atlantic.
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